Can BJP Win Assam Assembly Election?

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This summer 2016, it’s political sunburn with almost 4 assembly elections in a row. Assam Election is also one of them big challenging election for Saffron party since back to back setback from Delhi and Bihar, they are on back foot plus there is no other state election where they can score high as assam. 
Can BJP Win Assam Assembly Election

In fact in assam too, since last 15 years, Tarun Gogoi’s Congress Government is ruling state peacefully but all sudden BJP becomes the hot favorite party to win Assam assembly election just after 2014 Loksabha Election.

In 2014 LS election, Saffron party won 7 out of 14 seats and put major setback on long living tarun gogoai’s government. Though, it was modi wave which bring BJP on top of the point table but its been almost 2 years since the last election and after that Modi wave is also officially over, which confirmed in Delhi and Bihar Assembly Elections.

So, apart from Assam, states which are going in election this summer are Tamil nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam, out of Assam, in all other states BJP is almost 0 MLA party. In fact in Assam too, they have only 5 MLAs but LS election made them hot favorite.

Can BJP Win Assam Election 2016?

1. 15 years of Anti-incumbency:- The current Government of Tarun Gogoi is fighting with 15 years of Anti-incumbency with poor health of Road, infrastructure in state, it will be tough for congress to answer on them. Also, electricity and water supply and other basic needs for human being are not very well organized. Governance model also questionable.

But at the same time, anti incumbency of Central Government will be big question for BJP to answer. The all poll promise which made by Narendra Modi are not yet fulfilled. Dal Price, Bangladesi immigrants are big questions to answer for BJP.

2. Illegal immigrant’s issue: - It was one of the big issue raised by Narendra Modi at the time of loksabha election which brings lot of votes for BJP in 2014 election. Tarun Gogoi government has been always questioned for favoring bangladesi muslims and same question was raised during 2014 election campaign by narendara modi.

But when it comes to solve the issue, Central government has signed boarder dispute problem and solved 30 year old border issue with Bangladesh with exchanging lands. In which, lots of Bangladesh village are comes in to india and assam lost many villages under this MOU.

At this front, both congress and BJP need to answer what they did for assam over illegal immigrants issues.

3. Assam’s Demographic change: - As per 2011 census,  Assam is now officially 2nd big state with highest muslim population after Jammu and Kashmir. Assam has now 34% muslim population (out of which most of them are Bangladeshi muslims). And for which Congress government need to answer.

But nothing has been done or possible to do now so, this Demographic change is now favouring congress and the same time quite a big issue for them to win this upcoming election in Assam.

While answering this challenge, BJP woos Adivasi and tribal areas’ population who were seeking special status and SC/ST status from center. BJP lead government has approved to give SC/ST status to few castes.

4. Political Map of Assam: - The most important thing is which party alliance with whom. Here we have major political parties like Congress, BJP, AGP, Bodoland people’s Front, AIUDF. While playing master stroke, BJP already did pre-poll alliance with Bodoland people’s front and now almost eyeing to have alliance with AGP.

AGP who were formed on the principle of opposite of Congress will either play it alone or will have alliance with BJP or may fight on limited seats. While AIUDF who have image of repetitive of Bangladeshi muslims are keen to have alliance with Congress. And for congress to it will be good that the opposition votes are not divided in 3 side which indirectly will help bjp to gain in Assam assembly election.

But on the other hand, Congress is worried to join hands with AIUDF as it will directly made them allay of illegal immigrants, for which they already suffered huge set back in 2014. So from political map, BJP is favorite party (as of now).

But congress with 74 seats in 120 assembly house is having quite strong foot hold in assam tribal areas is confident to fight alone in upcoming assembly election.

5. Chief Minister Candidate: -
Learning from Bihar’s loss, BJP has already declared Sarbananda Sonowal (union minister of sports) as Chief Minister Candidate. Sarbananda Sonowal is 53 year old, having good experience in politics, currently MP from Assam,former AGP leader and student union leader have quite strong image in assam.

Sarbananda Sonowal having direct with Tarun Gogoi since congress denied changing their CM face. 82 year old Tarun Gogoi is all set to lead congress again in upcoming assembly election. Tarun gogoi is having 15 years of governance experience while Sarbananda Sonowal is Young, Dynamic, Fresh face for assam, popular in Youth.

6. Election Campaign in Assam :-  Tarun Gogoi is too confident that he even denied to getting help of Prashant Kishor Who was master mind to defeat BJP in Bihar Assembly Election 2015. On the other side, Prashant Kishor and Nitish Kumar tried hard to have Bihar style mahagathbandhan in Assam too.

On the other side BJP trying hands with Harvard graduate Rajat Sethi, who is preparing vision document for BJP in assam called " Assam Nirman". After Prashant Kishore's exit from BJP camp, Rajat Sethi is new social cell boy for BJP who will handle campaign for BJP in Assam.

While The star campaigner of BJP already in grounds. Narendra Modi, Sonowal and other leaders already kicked off campaign in assam while Congress still found asleep.

So, from all the above points it looks 50-50 chance for both BJP and Congress to win Assam Assembly Election. What you think? Do share your thoughts in comment box below.


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